Survey results
Our statistics class survey was not only a survey.
It was an experiment.
You remember that each survey had a random number X
at the top of it, `a random number between 0 and 100'.
These numbers were actually chosen at random
from the set {10,65}.
Half of the surveys had `X=10', and half had `X=65'.
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The 'Survey'
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We chose (by computer) a random number between 0 and 100.
The number selected for you is X = [65 / 10]
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Do you think X is
greater or less than the
percentage of countries
that are in Africa?
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Write down your best estimate of
the percentage of countries
that are in Africa.
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How many children does your mother have (including you)?
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How many children does your oldest aunt have?
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Please think about the following questions:
(remember, the numbers X = 10 and X= 65 were assigned
randomly)
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Do you think there should be any correlation
between the value of X and the answer to question 2?
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Consider the question `what is the typical
number of children that a woman has?'
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Is the average answer to question 3 a good approximate answer to this
question?
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Is the average answer to question 4 a good approximate answer to this
question?
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Do you think there should be any correlation
between the answers to questions 3 and 4?
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Do you think the distribution
of answers to questions 3 and 4 should be different?
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Do you expect the average of the answers to question 3
to be significantly different from the
average of the answers to question 4?
Then...
Listen to a 'Yes Minister'
play, that explains how opinion pollsters can get
whatever answer they want to a question.
See the
responses to the survey.
This class exercise was picked up from
Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks by
Andrew Gelman and Deborah Nolan.
Another survey in the news
David MacKay - 2006 October 10th